CAPACITY PLANNING OF ETHANOL BIOREFINERIES IN BRAZIL FOR ITS FUTURE FUEL MARKET EQUILIBRIUM

The ethanol market in Brazil has been driven by ups and downs related to political implications. Since the Pro-Alcool program to face the hydrocarbon market consequences in the aftermath of the Iran and Iraq War, the ethanol is strongly integrated to the fuel portfolio as a substitute of gasoline in Otto cycle engine fleets in Brazil. Different from other countries in Europe and North America, where the ethanol content in gasoline is around 10% in volume, the gasoline sold in the fuel stations of the Brazilian states is a mix of gasoline A (pure) and anhydrous ethanol to yield the so-called gasoline C with ethanol percentage in volume varying from 18% in 2006 to the current 27% in 2018. Studies evaluate up to 40% of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline C to decline the 30-40% levels of imports of gasoline A. Furthermore, the demands in ethanol stabilized to a new state of imports since 2017 and it currently represents 7% of the total ethanol consumed in the country. For this reason, the investments in the ethanol market are supposed to increase and there are discussions around the startup of new ethanol biorefineries by introducing the use of corn as biomass. Sugar cane based biorefineries for ethanol production dominates in Brazil, although the steady increase in ethanol demands and the corn market seasonality brings new figures for capacity planning of the ethanol production to achieve market equilibrium. In this direction, we calculate the net present value (NPV) in a strategic planning study of ethanol biorefineries considering the current ethanol imports and its expected increase.