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The democratic era in Iraq that began in Iraq after the spring of 2003 resulted in a conflict among political, ethnic, religious and nationalism components of Iraq. This paper provides an unprecedented research based on scientific foundations to discover the conflicts and alliances among the components of the Iraqi people and determine future Iraqi's tendencies. It depends on the concepts of rough set and conflict analysis. The research required many steps to be achieved. Such steps are: determining the Iraqi vital issues, creating what so-called "information system" database, (IS), submitting the IS to rough set and conflict theory depending on the general system for conflict analysis presented in [1], and modification of conflict model to predict the extension of "Enmity" and "friendship" concepts depending on the suggested algorithms and operations presented in [2]. Twelve vital issues were selected, depending on rough set's reduct operation, out of 31 issues. 5692 Iraqis, belong to eight Iraqi blocs, expressed their opinions about the selected issues. The opinions were attained using electronic opinion acquisition system prepared for this purpose. The participator's opinion may be positive, neutral, or negative. The research discovered 42, 11, and 43 positive, neutrals, and negative opinions respectively. However, the overall conflict situation was 17 alliances, 10 conflicts, and 1 neutral relation. The paper includes the prediction that the unique neutral relation would change to an alliance relation. The degree of the strongest conflict between two major Iraqi components was 0.9166667, while the degree of the highest alliance between two Iraqi components is 0.04166667.

Rough Set and Conflict Analysis to Discover the Conflicts, Alliances and Neutralities among the Iraqi People Components