Use of Predictive Modeling for Prediction of Future Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan

Recent years have seen an increased interest in Data mining related to terrorism. Large volumes of terrorism records can be analyzed efficiently using data mining techniques to get solutions for crime investigation by law enforcement agencies. On 2014 edition of Global Terrorism Index (GTI, 2015), which systematically rank and compares 162 countries to the impact of terrorism, Pakistan was ranked as the third most affected country. The area of predicting terrorist incidents in the perspective of Pakistan is not adequately explored by the data mining research community which assert a serious concern. This study is focused on analyzing Incident data set from Global Terrorism Database (GTD) specific to Pakistan from year 1970 to 2014 by using predictive modeling. Prediction of future terrorist attacks according to City, Attack type, Target type, Claim mode, Weapon type and Motive of attack through classification techniques will facilitates the decision making process by security organizations as to learn from the previous stored attack information and then rate the targeted sectors/ areas of Pakistan accordingly for security measures.