Change in seismicity beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Static changes in the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) forecast an increase in seismicity in and around the Tokyo metropolis after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (magnitude 9.0). Among the 30,694 previous events in this region with various depth and focal mechanism, almost 19,000 indicate a significant increase of the ΔCFF, while less than 6,000 indicate a significant decrease. An increase in seismicity is predicted in southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, and in the shallow crust of the Izu and Hakone regions. A comparison of seismicity before and after the 2011 event reveals that the seismicity in the above regions indeed increased as predicted from the ΔCFF.