Psychiatrische Prognose im Strafrecht bei älteren Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen

Prognosis confronts forensic psychiatrists with a very difficult problem in criminal court cases and is again and again the topic of controversial discussions. Generally accepted standards hardly exist, the choice of predictors is unclear, and valid criteria for prognosis are largely lacking. This is especially true for the group of older teenagers and young adults with a so-called "Multiproblem Syndrome". The present study investigates the extent to which relevant aspects of criminal behaviour in this population can be predicted from path analysis by means of features characterising precrime behaviour, personality development and state of socialisation. 457 probands from stationary social training and psychiatric institutions were investigated along with a representative comparison group taking into account their biographical background (basis data), social situation (DINX) and psychopathology from a developmental perspective (DIAD). After a follow-up period of 12 years, the names of these individuals were searched for in the federal criminal record. Using factor analysis, an overall number of 35 predictor variables was reduced to 8 factors. A model for the prediction of the probability for future delinquence was then developed from a subsequent discriminance analysis (split-half method). By means of this predictive model, 74% of the probands could be correctly classified according to the occurrence or non-occurrence of delinquency anytime during an average course of 12 years (Χ 2 = 51.3; df = 1; p <0.0001). The positive predictive value lies at 0.78, the sensitivity at 0.65 and the specificity at 0.82. This result gives an indication of the prognostibility of delinquent behaviour over the long period of 12 years for older teenagers and young adults with multiple behaviour disturbances.