A Probabilistic Design Methodology for Commercial Aircraft Engine Cycle Selection

The objective of this paper is to examine ways in which to implement probabilistic design methods in the aircraft engine preliminary design process. Specifically, the focus is on analytically determining the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on the overall performance of a notional large commercial transport, particularly the impact on design range, fuel burn, and engine weight. The emphasis is twofold: first is to find ways to reduce the impact of this uncertainty through appropriate engine cycle selections, and second is on finding ways to leverage existing design margin to squeeze more performance out of current technology.