Open AccessWeather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach
Author(s) -
Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell,
Craig Williams,
Scott A Ritchie,
Gina Rau,
Janette Lindesay,
Geoff Mercer,
David Harley
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
american journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.015
H-Index - 151
eISSN - 1476-1645
pISSN - 0002-9637
DOI - 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451
Subject(s) - dengue fever , outbreak , seasonality , transmission (telecommunications) , geography , climate change , range (aeronautics) , disease transmission , variation (astronomy) , adaptation (eye) , environmental science , ecology , biology , virology , engineering , neuroscience , physics , astrophysics , aerospace engineering , electrical engineering
The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.
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