Le modèle FFSm 1.0 : De l’outil de recherche en économie à son utilisation pour l’aide à la décision

This article attempts to determine the nature and relevance of the French Forest Sector model for long-term economic forecasting that represents a complex bioeconomic system in the form of thousands of equations. In particular, it shows that beyond the figures it produces, such a model is able to highlight the determinants of actual phenomena and determine the latter’s order of magnitude and sensitivity to actual parameters. In the context of an expert assessment, the relevance of using such a model resides in comparisons of output variables (price, supplies and demands for wood products, economic surpluses) for various scenarios.