Éléments de prospective pour l’élaboration d’une politique publique de prévention contre les incendies de forêtsdans le cadre de l’adaptation au changement climatique

By 2050, nearly half the surface area of heathland and forests in mainland France may be affected by a high level of exposure to forest fires (i.e. an increase in excess of 30%). Nonetheless preventive measures and control undertaken since the beginning of the 1990s have significantly reduced the damage caused by fire (20,000 ha destroyed by fire from 1991-2009 compared to 45,000 ha previously); these encouraging results may now be challenged by climate change. The prospective study commissioned by the three ministries (Agriculture, Environment and Internal Affairs) on the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of French Forests to fire hazards also forecasts that the current cost of fire prevention and fighting (more than half a billion euros, two thirds of which are accounted for by firefighting and one third fire prevention) will increase by at least 20%.