Impact du climat sur la mortalité en France, de 1680 à l'époque actuelle

EnglishWe have used historical data, demographers? estimates and various meteorological measurements to identify and to comment the most intense climatic anomalies, the ones that had visible consequences on French mortality. We were particularly interested in severe winters and heat waves and their direct consequences on human mortality. We have also looked at indirect effects such as weather unfavourable to cereal harvests causing mortality through grain scarcity, famines and collateral epidemics due to malnourishment. For the period before 1850 we have only considered mortalities above 100,000 persons. For the period 1850 to 2007, monthly meteorological and demographic data were available and so we obtained a more precise relationship between fluctuation of temperatures and mortality. All winters and some severe heat waves are still responsible for yearly excesses of mortality greater than 10,000 people. francaisGrâce aux temoignages historiques, aux estimations des demographes et a des mesures meteorologiques eparses, les principales anomalies climatiques intenses depuis 1680 ayant eu des consequences sur la mortalite francaise sont identifiees et commentees. De grands froids et des canicules, par leurs effets directs, mais aussi des conditions meteorologiques defavorables aux recoltes et des etes tres chauds et secs favorables aux epidemies ont ete a l'origine d'excedents de deces durant l'Ancien Regime pouvant depasser 100 000 victimes et allant meme jusqu'a 1 300 000 lors des famines de 1693-1694. Pour le XXe siecle et le debut du XXIe, grâce aux donnees meteorologiques et demographiques mensuelles pour l'ensemble de la France, les relations entre les fluctuations des temperatures et celles des deces peuvent etre mises en evidence plus precisement. Tous les hivers et occasionnellement des canicules exceptionnelles sont encore responsables d'excedents de deces depassant la dizaine de milliers.