A Methodology to Assess the Safety of Aircraft Operations When Aerodrome Obstacle Standards Cannot Be Met

When Aerodrome Obstacle Standards cannot be met as a result of urban or technical development, an aeronautical study can be carried out with the permission of EASA, in conjunction with ICAO, to prove how aircrafts can achieve an equivalent level of safety. However currently, no detailed guidance for this procedure exists. This paper proposes such a safety assessment methodology in order to value obstacle clearance violations around airports. This method has already been applied to a safety case at Frankfurt Airport where a tower elevating 4 km out of threshold 25R severely violates obstacle limitation surfaces. The model data refers to a take-off and landing performance model (TLPM) computing precisely aircraft trajectories for both standard and engine out conditions at ground proximity. The generated tracks are used to estimate collision risk incrementally considering EASA/FAA, EU-OPS & ICAO clearance criteria. Normal operations are assessed with a probabilistic analysis of empirical take-off/landing track data generating the local actual navigation performance (ANP) on site. The ANP shows integration to collision risk for an aircraft with any obstacle. The obstacle is tested for clearance within a “5-step-plan” against all performance requirements for landing climb and take-off climb. The methodology thereby delivers a comprehensive risk picture: The presented safety case for Frankfurt Airport showed an equivalent safety level despite the violation of standards. The collision risk during both normal and degraded performance operations was still found to be within ICAO Collision Risk Model (CRM) limits, requiring only limited risk mitigation measures. The presented work should complement ICAO Doc 9774 Appendix 3.