Contrasting Historical and Recent Breakup Styles on the Meade River of Arctic Alaska in the Context of a Warming Climate

Although data for temporal spring river ice breakup are available for a number of Arctic rivers, there is a paucity of information related to the type of breakup. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) of 2005 predicted a transition from mechanical to thermal spring breakup of ice cover on arctic rivers, with this shift being greatest in exclusively Arctic watersheds where observed warming is most pronounced. We describe a rare instance of an entirely Arctic river with limited but well documented historical and recent data regarding the type of breakup. Time-series ground imagery of spring breakup from 1966, 1975, 1978, 2009, 2010 and 2012, in combination with interviews of local inhabitants, documents a shift from predominantly mechanical to predominantly thermal breakup after spring 1978 and by spring 2009 within the context of a locally and regionally warming Arctic. The resultant shift from predominantly mechanical to predominantly thermal breakup is predicted to result in significant changes to water, sediment, nutrient and organic carbon fluxes, as well as riparian ecology and human activities.