Apocalypse When?

The Revelation of St. John the Divine (the last book in the New Testament of the Christian Bible), otherwise known as the Apocalypse, gives a dire forecast of what will happen to us on the Day of Judgment. To the casual reader, the predicted doom and gloom for those on Earth who did not meet the mark may seem like the ravings of a religious mystic. Yet, the predictions, especially the appearance of the Four Horsemen, have a curiously uncomfortable ring when applied to our world today. Certain things may be largely out of our control, even if we really care about the future of our species. Current astronomical research suggests there is a 1:5000 chance that there will be an extinction due to an asteroid of more than a kilometer in diameter colliding with the Earth just before the end of this century—an event that could wipe out humankind, or at least civilization as we know it. This catastrophe will be faced by our great grandchildren, but how to plan for it is the responsibility of their forebears— namely us! Humankind is already on a pathway of selfdestruction, an achievement that will not need the aid of an aberrant asteroid. A Nobel laureate debate held in Stockholm just over a decade ago tackled the question, “What is the greatest problem we face?” With almost unanimity (notably Mother Teresa dissenting), the answer was “overpopulation.” Humankind is in its last doubling, and if the population growth is not controlled, humans will cease to exist. Of course, most people regard the bearing of children as a right and are sorely troubled when any government (eg, the Republic of China) is bold enough to try to limit family size. Critical care came into its own in 1952 with the development of the intensive care unit (ICU). Since then, the world’s population has risen from 2.8 to 6.1 billion. The expectation was that the rate of growth would begin to slow in the next 2 to 3 decades, as resources would no longer support the expanding population. The ominous reality is that a decline in population growth rates has already started.