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On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns
Author(s) -
Crump Richard K.,
Gospodinov Nikolay
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
econometrica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 16.7
H-Index - 199
eISSN - 1468-0262
pISSN - 0012-9682
DOI - 10.3982/ecta17943
Subject(s) - dimension (graph theory) , parameterized complexity , factor analysis , mathematics , maturity (psychological) , space (punctuation) , econometrics , factor (programming language) , yield curve , bond , polynomial , goodness of fit , pure mathematics , economics , mathematical economics , statistics , mathematical analysis , computer science , combinatorics , finance , psychology , developmental psychology , programming language , operating system
We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross‐sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the underlying factor space. Numerical examples illustrate the significant economic costs of erroneously committing to a parsimoniously parameterized factor space that is informed by standard metrics of goodness‐of‐fit. Our results apply to other assets with a finite maturity structure.