Error bounds for Kalman filters on traffic networks

This work analyzes the estimation performance of the Kalman filter (KF) on transportation networks with junctions. To facilitate the analysis, a hybrid linear model describing traffic dynamics on a network is derived. The model, referred to as the switching mode model for junctions, combines the discretized Lighthill-Whitham-Richards partial differential equation with a junction model. The system is shown to be unobservable under nearly all of the regimes of the model, motivating attention to the estimation error bounds in these modes. The evolution of the estimation error is investigated via exploring the interactions between the update scheme of the KF and the intrinsic physical properties embedded in the traffic model (e.g., conservation of vehicles and the flow-density relationship). It is shown that the state estimates of all the cells in the traffic network are ultimately bounded inside a physically meaningful interval, which cannot be achieved by an open-loop observer.