A DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING BASED ON FUZZY ANP FOR SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Risk assessment in large organizations with extensive operational domains has been a challenging issue. Employing an efficient method along with realistic pair comparisons, applying subjective inferences of organization experts, and purging the intrinsic ambiguity of inferences, are not reflected in current airlines' safety management. Traditional two-dimensional risk assessment for risk management of safety hazards, however, is no longer sufficient to comply with this complexity. A new model for risk management and a novel formula for risk index calculation, based on a fuzzy approach, are presented in this study. In this new model, unlike in the traditional approach, the latent aftermath of safety reports, especially those which affect the continuity of the business, is also taken into account. In this model, along with the definition of a new structure for risk management, risk analysis should be restructured. To that end, a two-dimensional classic risk formula was replaced with three-dimensional (nonlinear) exponential ones, considering “the impact on the business” as a source of risk and hazard. For measuring the safety risk using the Fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method, considering experts' opinions, three criteria in four different operational fields were developed. This method employs a Fuzzy ANP to help quantify judgments, make qualitative judgments in the traditional method, and weigh the priority of elements contributing to risk. Also, it provides a tool for top-level as well as expert level management to monitor safety more precisely, monitor the safety level within their departments or organizations, set quantitative safety goals and provide feedback for improvement as well as find the most critical areas with the least cost. In this study, an airline has been selected as a case study for the risk assessment of reports based on the new model.