Forecasting Technology Maturity Curve of Cloud Computing with its Enabler Technologies

239 DOI: 10.37398/JSR.2020.640233 Abstract: Forecasting the technology maturity and adoption curve is important for finalizing research policy, investment plan and development plan. In the last decade many governments, enterprises and researchers showed interest in cloud computing technology. Many surveys reported cloud computing as a disruptive technology. This paper investigates technology maturity curve of cloud computing. To gain more insight, maturity curve of cloud computing is investigated with its enabler technologies using growth curve methods. The maturity of technologies is forecasted using the number of papers and patents which are obtained from U.S., European patent office, IEEE and ScienceDirect. The best fitting of logistic and Gompertz growth curve methods are calculated using MAE and RMSE error measures. The majority of the technologies follow introduction, growth, maturity and decline pattern. Results show that the growth pattern of virtualization, distributed computing and grid computing is similar to the Sshaped curve. The life cycle pattern and growth rate of each technology is different. The growth rate on paper and patent indicators are different.