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A large majority of migrants are found at the safest sties in all years, however our analysis of the PMD demonstrated that the fraction increased over time. In 1974, 80% of birds were found at the safest 20% of the sites, while in 2017, this had increased to 97%. A sensitivity analysis shows that the shift was made specifically towards safer (and not just larger) sites. The shift as measured by a PMD index decline cannot be accounted for by possible biases inherent in the data set. We conclude that the data support the prediction that increasing predator danger has induced a shift by southbound migrant semipalmated sandpipers to safer sites.

Migrant Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) Have Over Four Decades Steadily Shifted Towards Safer Stopover Locations