Country portfolio model considering market uncertainties in construction industry

In recent decades, market uncertainties such as unpredicted economic recessions and expansions have significantly affected to the international construction market. These uncertainties arise simultaneously either at the country level or more broadly and traditional project-based risk management has limited to manage a contractor’ profit. From the perspective of managing the market uncertainties, therefore, this study proposes country portfolio model that provides an optimized country portfolio solution through considering on the market outlook, country risk and expected profitability. These are evaluated by country-specific data related construction market and actual project performance data using monte-carlo simulation and genetic algorism. It is expected that the proposed country portfolio model will support to decide better decision about entering new international construction market by giving the ideal country portfolio considering market uncertainties. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Diamond Congress Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Creative Construction Conference 2018.