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espanolNuestra comprension incompleta de la complejidad de la naturaleza genera incertidumbre en los modelos matematicos y cartograficos utilizados para predecir los efectos del cambio climatico en la distribucion de las especies. Se elaboraron modelos para predecir los cambios en la distribucion de las especies de vertebrados amenazados en la Espana peninsular y en sus correspondientes zonas de alta biodiversidad producidos por el cambio climatico. Se consideraron dos fuentes importantes de incertidumbre climatica que afectan a las predicciones climaticas: los modelos de circulacion general y el contexto socioeconomico. Asimismo, se analizo la importancia relativa del clima en cuanto factor determinante de la distribucion de las especies y la incertidumbre taxonomica como causas biogeograficas anadidas de incertidumbre. Se detecto incertidumbre en todos los pronosticos realizados a partir de modelos en los que el clima era un factor explicativo significativo y en las especies con incertidumbre taxonomica. En los pronosticos, la incertidumbre se localizo principalmente en areas no ocupadas por las especies y aumento con el desfase temporal respecto al presente. La representacion cartografica de esta incertidumbre permitio evaluar la coherencia de las predicciones con respecto a los futuros cambios de la distribucion de las zonas de alta biodiversidad de vertebrados amenazados de Espana. EnglishOur limited understanding of the complexity of nature generates uncertainty in mathematical and cartographical models used to predict the effects of climate change on species’ distributions. We developed predictive models of distributional range shifts of threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, and in their accumulation in biodiversity hotspots due to climate change. We considered two relevant sources of climatological uncertainty that affect predictions of future climate: general circulation models and socio–economic scenarios. We also examined the relative importance of climate as a driver of species’ distribution and taxonomic uncertainty as additional biogeographical causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty was detected in all the forecasts derived from models in which climate was a significant explanatory factor, and in the species with taxonomic uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasts was mainly located in areas not occupied by the species, and increased with time difference from the present. Mapping this uncertainty allowed us to assess the consistency of predictions regarding future changes in the distribution of hotspots of threatened vertebrates in Spain.

Accounting for uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity hotspots in Spain