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espanolProponemos un protocolo para estimar los efectos del cambio climatico en las especies que habitan una reserva, evaluando la ubicacion de las areas con condiciones ambientales similares a un area focal protegida, tanto ahora como en el futuro. Siguiendo este protocolo es posible estimar: (i) el cambio que se producira en las condiciones climaticas actuales de una reserva, (ii) la ubicacion actual de las areas con condiciones similares a las que tendra esta reserva en el futuro (areas emisoras) y (iii) la localizacion de las areas que en un futuro tengan condiciones ambientales similares a las existentes en el area protegida estudiada (areas receptoras). Este conocimiento puede utilizarse para anticiparse y adaptar el area protegida a los futuros cambios. En este estudio se ha utilizado como ejemplo la reserva del Parque Nacional de Cabaneros, representativa de las condiciones mediterraneas, para calcular la extension, la fragmentacion y la localizacion de las areas con condiciones climaticas similares a las de la reserva; asi mismo, se ha determinado la conectividad de estas areas y su grado de alteracion antropica. EnglishWe propose a protocol to estimate the effects of climate change on species inhabiting a reserve by assessing the location of areas with similar environmental conditions to a focal protected area, both now and in the future. Following this protocol it is possible to estimate: (i) the level of change that will occur in the current climatic conditions of a reserve; (ii) the present location of the areas with similar conditions to those this reserve will have in the future (emitter areas); and (iii) the location of the areas that in the future will have similar environmental conditions to those existing in the studied protected area (recipient areas). This knowledge can be used to anticipate and adapt the protected area against future changes. In this study, we used an Iberian reserve representative of the Mediterranean conditions, the Cabaneros National Park, as an example to calculate the extension, fragmentation and location of the areas with climatic conditions similar to those of the reserve. We also determined the connectivity between these areas and their degree of anthropic alteration.

Environmental representativeness and the role of emitter and recipient areas in the future trajectory of a protected area under climate change