Clinicians’ predictions of patient response to psychotropic medications

Clinicians prescribe a medication when they assume that there is a reasonable probability of its success. There are many studies on the predictive value of social or clinical information, but these studies do not include the prognosis made by psychiatrists before treatment. These studies indicate that a small to moderate proportion of the total variance of outcome can be predicted from social or clinical information. It is peculiar that there are very few studies on the accuracy of psychiatrists’ “bets” about the effects of psychotropic drugs when they use the clinical characteristics of patients as predictors, considering the practical relevance of predicting the outcome of a psychiatric treatment. The absence of studies on the accuracy of clinicians’ bets or predictions in psychiatry is unfortunate.