Incertitude et pilotage des écosystèmes forestiers (essai)

Uncertainty and steering forest ecosystems (essay) Uncertainties are not just one element of managing forest ecosystems; they influence every dimension and are at the heart of the extraordinary complexity of this activity. This fact leads us to review the approaches and tools of forest management through the lens of uncertainty. This essay looks at this question from the perspective of three major types of uncertainty: 1) uncertainty regarding the definition of management objectives in the very long term; 2) uncertainties regarding the disturbances which can affect forest management and 3) uncertainties regarding ecosystems and their dynamics. Studying these three types of uncertainty provides food for thought leading us towards dynamic and adaptive management of forest ecosystems. From the start, the relative weight of the different uncertainties must be estimated, and focused on the field of action which is available in practice to the forest manager. Then, the rapid progress of recent years in remote sensing and IT-based decision support tools makes possible a dynamic and adaptive ecosystem management. Finally, putting in place a continuous learning process, through appropriate measures and support systems, allows us to refine even more our understanding of ecosystems.