Baumartenvielfalt und Produktionsrisiken: Ein Forschungseinblick und -ausblick | Diversity of tree species and risk: A research insight and outlook

Scientific approaches to analyze silvicultural decisions and their consequences for financial risk are scarce, and yet, considering financial risk and risk correlation offers the opportunity to use adequate approaches from financial theory for the valuation of silvicultural decisions. Based on a classical financial approach, this paper analyzes the silvicultural problem of tree species choice and develops a perspective for silvicultural and forest economic oriented research. It provides the conventional «Faustmann-approach» with financial risk and risk correlation generated by Monte-Carlo simulation. This enables both, the application of the theory of portfolio selection according to Markowitz and the theorem of capital separation according to Tobin to derive the optimal tree species composition, which is principally independent from the degree of risk-aversion if a risk-free investment alternative exists. While supporting the ecological idea of tree species diversity, this simple financial approach provides an interesting research perspective. In future, the two species example has to be extended to more species, different sites and the integration of ecological effects between tree species when mixed in small units such as groups. Furthermore, possible changes in the risk profile of different tree species should be considered; for example, by means of the «information-gap» decision theory. In conclusion, one can see great potential in combining ecological and financial research to support silvicultural decisions for the Central European forest science.