Bewertung von Handlungsstrategien in Schutzwäldern: Ein integraler Modellansatz | Valuation of management strategies in protection forests: an integrative modeling approach

Cost-effective management of protection forests demands an integration of ecological, technical and economical knowledge. To date, this integration has only been partly achieved and is therefore difficult to comparatively evaluate different management strategies, i.e. combinations of preventive operations (thinning, planting) and reactive treatments after disturbances (salvage harvesting, fill planting or re-planting, construction of defensive structures). This paper describes the prototype of a protection forest model that enables such evaluations and demonstrates its application in four case studies. The model is based on a modified Markov chain approach and contains six modules: The stand dynamics module simulates the development of 16 stand types (e.g., multistoried stand). The disturbances module calculates the areas affected by storm and insect damage. The silvicultural operations module defines silvicultural strategies. The risk module estimates the hazard potential, the damage potential and probable damage from natural hazards. The costs module summarizes management costs,and the last module enables a cost-benefit analysis of the strategy chosen. The model runs over a 150 year period in 10 year steps. By modifying the assumptions of various parameters, the model can be used to identify the drivers of the protection forest system. In general, the application to the case studies showed plausible model behavior. Finally, the paper presents pathways for improving and validating the model.