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Depremler rassal olaylar oldugu icin bu alanda istatistiksel metotlarin kullanimi yaygindir. Istatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin cozumlenmesinde kullanilir. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasiliklari istatistiksel olasilik dagilimilari yardimiyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu calismada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Ustel ve Gamma dagilimlari kullanilarak deprem verisini en iyi sekilde temsil edecek olasilik dagilimi bulunmaya calisilmistir. Bu amacla etkin olasilik dagiliminin belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistigi kullanilmistir. Calisma sonucunda Weibull dagiliminin diger olasilik dagilimlarina gore deprem verisini en iyi sekilde temsil ettigi gorulmustur.

Probabilistic Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the NAFZ (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey