Demokratik Rejimlerde Politik Parasal Konjonktür Hareketleri: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme

The main objective of politicians in democratic regimes is to gain political power or to elongate the duration of their power. The realization of this objective is mostly depended upon the choices of the voters. The political powers who are aware of this situation, have many methods that they will use in order to direct the voters’ choices into the way of their own interest, prior to elections. The manipulation of monetary policy is one of these aforementioned methods. The purpose of this study, is to research if monetary policy is being manipulated or not in Turkey. The study has been based upon the period between the years 1986- 2004. In the aforementioned period, the data on monetary aggregates have been tested with the GARCH method. The findings point to the presence of political monetary cycle in the period taken into account in Turkey.