Deterrence and Crisis Stability – The F-35 and Joint Strike Missile’s Effect on the Norwegian Security Policy Toward Russia

This article analyzes how the F-35 Lightning II and Joint Strike Missile (JSM) affect the Norwegian security policy toward Russia. It answers how the systems influence Norwegian deterrence and defense efforts and crisis stability in serious crises and draws conclusions on how an operational concept should look in order to best reconcile the requirements for deterrence and crisis stability. The F-35 and JSM improve Norwegian defense and deterrence by denial by contributing to situational awareness, NATO’s collective defense, joint operations, as well as operations in the air, maritime, and land domains. They also open for deterrence by punishment and may contribute to improving the crisis stability by raising the threshold for Russian aggression. However, the stabilizing effect depends on the ability to defend the F-35 bases, and an overly offensive posture may instead cause escalation and threaten the stability. The study outlines three relevant modes of operation for the F-35 during crises or war: defensive, tactically offensive, and strategically offensive. In a security crisis without NATO participation, deterrence and crisis stability may best be achieved by employing the F-35 and JSM in the defensive and, in certain circumstances, the tactically offensive mode. A war involving NATO may become a matter of national survival, and decision-makers should thus keep all options open and utilize the defensive, tactically offensive, and strategically offensive modes as required.