A box-jenkins sarima analysis of dysentery cases in children aged below five at a provincial hospital in Zimbabwe

This piece of work uses monthly time series data on new dysentery cases at Gweru Provincial Hospital (GPH) from Janaury 2010 to December 2018, to predict dysentery cases over the period January 2019 to December 2020. As confirmed by unit root tests, the series under consideration is basically an I (1) variable. The study applied the Box-Jenkins “catch all” model. Residual analysis of this model indicates that the model is stable and thus suitable for predicting dysentery cases at GPH over the out-of-sample period. The results of the study reveal that dysentery cases will be on the rise at GPH over the out-of-sample period; characterized by seasonal repeats in December each year. The study offers a two-fold policy recommendation in order to help policy makers in the fight against dysentery in children under five years of age within the GPH catchment area.