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O objetivo deste trabalho foi encontrar as melhores variaveis preditoras atraves de analise de correlacao canonica nos ventos alisios, Temperatura da Superficie do Mar (TSM), Pressao atmosferica a superficie no Oceano Pacifico Equatorial e TSM no Atlântico Tropical (area do Dipolo), de forma que se possam elaborar modelos de previsao da precipitacao pluvial (periodo chuvoso) do setor leste do Nordeste do Brasil para os quatro meses mais chuvosos dos tres grupos homogeneos, com antecedencia de tres meses. Os grupos foram escolhidos a partir de analise de agrupamento utilizando o metodo hierarquico. Para estudar as correlacoes canonicas entre a precipitacao dos grupos com os dados padronizados de TSM, vento e pressao atmosferica, as analises fundamentaram-se na serie dos totais de precipitacao de abril a julho e dados defasados de medias de tres meses (media de Novembro a Janeiro) de TSM, vento em 850 hPa no Pacifico Equatorial e pressao da atmosfera em Tahiti e Darwin para o periodo de 1986 a 2017. Percebe-se que os principais preditores para os grupos homogeneos foram, por ordem de maior importância: Media de tres meses de atraso do indice de ventos alisios Equatorial central (MedWC), Media da pressao atmosferica a superficie em Darwin (Mdarwin), Media do EN 34 (MEN34), Media da pressao atmosferica a superficie em Tahiti (Mtahiti) e Media de indice de ventos alisios leste (MedWE). Nota-se deste atraso que a principal influencia esta no Pacifico, no ENOS. Predictors identification for rain in the east sector of the Northeast Brazil using canonical correlation analysis A B S T R A C T The objective of this work was to find the best predictor variables through canonical correlation analysis in trade winds, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Atmospheric pressure at the surface in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and SST in the Tropical Atlantic (Dipole area), that models for forecasting rainfall (rainy season) in the eastern sector of northeastern Brazil can be developed for the four rainiest months of the three homogeneous groups, three months in advance. The groups were chosen from the cluster analysis using the hierarchical method. To study the canonical correlations between the precipitation of the groups with the standardized data of SST, wind and atmospheric pressure, the analyzes were based on the series of precipitation totals from April to July and lagged data of three-month averages (average from November to July). January) of SST, wind at 850 hPa in the Equatorial Pacific and atmospheric pressure in Tahiti and Darwin for the period from 1986 to 2017. It can be seen that the main predictors for homogeneous groups were, in order of greatest importance: Average of three months delay of the central Equatorial trade winds index (MedWC), mean of the atmospheric pressure at the surface in Darwin (Mdarwin), mean of the EN 34 (MEN34), mean of the atmospheric pressure at the surface in Tahiti (Mtahiti) and mean of the east trade winds (MedWE). It is noted from this delay that the main influence is in the Pacific, in the ENSO. Keywords: wind, SST, precipitation.

Identificação de Preditores Para as Chuvas do Setor Leste do Nordeste do Brasil Utilizando Análise de Correlação Canônica