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In the last few years, predictive risk modelling has been suggested for use in the child welfare environment as an efficient means of targeting preventive resources and improving practitioner decision-making. First raised in the green paper on vulnerable children, then translated into the white paper on vulnerable children and the Children’s Action Plan, and now part of the Child, Youth and Family review remit, this particular tool has provoked a barrage of opinions and wide-ranging analyses, concerning ethical implications, feasibility and data issues, possible uses and political consequences (Ministry of Social Development, 2011, 2012). This has resulted in a flurry of media, academic and policy debates, both here and internationally, and many reviews and related publications.

Substantiation decision-making and risk prediction in child protection systems