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The aging phenomenon of the elderly occurs worldwide, especially Japan that is the most of the highest average age. Therefore, long stay tourism is alternative tourism for the elderly Japanese tourists. The aim of this research was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the number of long stay Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The data in this study gathered from the Chiang Mai Immigration Office that recorded in monthly during from January 2014 to July 2017 a total of 43 months. Then the data were classified into two sets. The first data set from January 2014 to December 2016 for 36 months were used to build the forecasting model by the methods of Classical decomposition, Seasonal simple exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins and Combining. The second data set from January 2017 to July 2017 a total of 7 months were used to compare the earlier three methods of the forecasting accuracy model via the criteria of Root Mean Square Error: RMSE. Research results indicated that combining forecasts was the most suitable for forecasting the number of long stay Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai.

Forecasting model for the number of long stay Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai