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In sheep and goat breeding programs, the proportion of females for which the sire is known (known paternity rate [KPR]) can be very low. In this context, paternity assignment using SNP is an attractive tool. The annual genetic gain (AGG) is impacted by the accuracy of the EBV. In populations with a low KPR, the number of known relatives for a given individual is low, and the EBV that are based on this information are imprecise. However, the impact of partially known paternal filiations, in terms of potential genetic and economic losses, has never been quantitatively evaluated in situations where natural mating is the main reproductive mode. A deterministic model was developed to assess, for a panel of real breeding programs, the influence of the female KPR on the AGG and economic benefit. First, males were divided into categories according to their status (natural mating or AI sire) and breeding cycle and females according to parity, sire status (including unknown sire), and breeding cycle of the sire. Second, a demographic model described, for each category, the accumulation of known records for individuals and their close relatives. The output from this model was used to compute the average accuracy of the EBV per category. Then, a genetic model based on the gene flow between categories over time was described. Using the average accuracy of EBV per category, it provided the asymptotic AGG of the nucleus given its KPR. In the economic studies, changes to the mean genetic values in the nucleus and the commercial population after an increase in KPR and various gain:cost ratios (monetary gain due to an extra genetic SD of the selected trait divided by the cost of 1 assignment) were considered. Relative profit and payback periods were computed. We showed that SNP-based parentage assignment aimed at increasing the female KPR was not always profitable and that the type of breeding program and the size of the commercial population should be taken into consideration. Notably, achieving a profit was largely dependent on obtaining a favorable gain:cost ratio. The maximum supplementary AGG (16.9%) was obtained for breeding programs using only natural mating. In such programs without AI, a gain:cost ratio of 5 was needed to make assignment profitable at the nucleus level whereas a gain:cost ratio of 2 was sufficient if the nucleus represented a third of the total population.

Genetic and economic effects of the increase in female paternal filiations by parentage assignment in sheep and goat breeding programs1