Use of Demographic and Quantitative Admissions Data to Predict Performance on the National Physical Therapy Examination

Background and Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine whether admissions data could be used to estimate physical therapist student risk for failing the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE). Subjects: A nationally representative sample of 20 physical therapist education programs provided data on 3,365 students. Methods: Programs provided data regarding demographic characteristics, undergraduate grade point average (uGPA), and quantitative and verbal Graduate Record Examination scores (qGRE, vGRE). The Federation of State Boards of Physical Therapy provided NPTE data. Data were analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression. Results: A prediction rule that included uGPA, vGRE, qGRE, and race or ethnicity was developed from the entire sample. Prediction rules for individual programs showed large variation. Discussion and Conclusion: Undergraduate grade point average, GRE scores, and race or ethnicity can be useful for estimating student risk for failing the NPTE. Programs should use GPA and GRE scores along with other data to calculate their own estimates of student risk.