Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station through 2020 and Beyond: Including Epistemic Uncertainty in Reassessing Confidence Targets

This paper introduces an analytical approach, Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT), which can be used to assess uncertainty in International Space Station (ISS) hardware sparing necessary to extend the life of the vehicle. There are several key areas under consideration in this research. We investigate what sparing confidence targets may be reasonable to ensure vehicle survivability and for completion of science on the ISS. The results of the analysis will provide a methodological basis for reassessing vehicle subsystem confidence targets. An ongoing annual analysis currently compares the probability of existing spares exceeding the total expected unit demand of the Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) in functional hierarchies approximating the vehicle subsystems. In cases where the functional hierarchies availability does not meet subsystem confidence targets, the current sparing analysis further identifies which ORUs may require additional spares to extend the life of the ISS. The resulting probability is dependent upon hardware reliability estimates. However, the ISS hardware fleet carries considerable epistemic uncertainty (uncertainty in the knowledge of the true hardware failure rate), which does not currently factor into the annual sparing analysis. The existing confidence targets may be conservative. This paper will also discuss how confidence targets may be relaxed based on the inclusion of epistemic uncertainty for each ORU. The paper will conclude with strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life, 2020 and beyond.