Calculating Launch Vehicle Flight Performance Reserve

This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and environmental models that will be available (estimated) for a launch day go/no go decision. High-fidelity closed-loop Monte Carlo simulation determines the amount of propellant used with each random combination of parameters that are still unknown at the time of launch. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, several methods were used to calculate the FPR. The final chosen solution involves determining distributions for the pertinent outputs and running a separate Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a best estimate of the required FPR. This result differs from the result obtained using the other methods sufficiently that the higher fidelity is warranted.