Safety Performance of Airborne Separation: Preliminary Baseline Testing

The Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) study is a suite of Monte Carlo simulation experiments designed to analyze and quantify safety behavior of airborne separation. This paper presents results of preliminary baseline testing. The preliminary baseline scenario is designed to be very challenging, consisting of randomized routes in generic high-density airspace in which all aircraft are constrained to the same flight level. Sustained traffic density is varied from approximately 3 to 15 aircraft per 10,000 square miles, approximating up to about 5 times today’s traffic density in a typical sector. Research at high traffic densities and at multiple flight levels are planned within the next two years. Basic safety metrics for aircraft separation are collected and analyzed. During the progression of experiments, various errors, uncertainties, delays, and other variables potentially impacting system safety will be incrementally introduced to analyze the effect on safety of the individual factors as well as their interaction and collective effect. In this paper we report the results of the first experiment that addresses the preliminary baseline condition tested over a range of traffic densities. Early results at five times the typical traffic density in today’s NAS indicate that, under the assumptions of this study, airborne separation can be safely performed. In addition, we report on initial observations from an exploration of four additional factors tested at a single traffic density: broadcast surveillance signal interference, extent of intent sharing, pilot delay, and wind prediction error.