Safety Risk Simulation of an Airborne Self Separation Concept of Operation

[Abstract] This paper evaluates through Monte Carlo (MC) simulation an airborne self separation concept which has been developed for use in en-route traffic conditions such as encountered over the Mediterranean area. For three different encounter scenarios, probabilities for violating minimum separation and for near-mid-air and mid-air events are estimated by applying powerful novel MC simulation approaches in rare event estimation. This provides great new insight in the efficacy of airborne conflict resolution management. The paper shows several quantitative risk estimates and presents an interpretation of these results in terms of safety. It shows that airborne self separation can be very effective, but also has its limitations for dense traffic conditio ns when conflict resolution is done in a sequential and un-coordinated way.