Farm size, food security, and welfare

Understanding the consequences of decreasing land availability per capita because of population growth is of considerable interest to policymakers. Already in the 19th century, there were worries voiced about the effects of population growth on food security. Malthus (1826) famously predicted that the planet would run out of food because of increasing land constraints and that population growth was therefore to be controlled. However, technological changes in agriculture have since contributed to substantial increases in agricultural production per unit of land, and no global food shortages have occurred. Available evidence in different settings, including Africa, shows that population growth has induced agricultural change and led to a reduction in fallow periods, to adoption of agricultural innovations, and to an increase in input use—labor and other agricultural inputs—per unit of land, all leading to higher yields (Boserup 2005; Fresco 1986; Binswanger and Pingali 1988; Tsakok 2011; Jayne, Chamberlin, and Headey 2014; Headey and Jayne 2014; Ricker-Gilbert, Jumbe, and Chamberlin 2014; Muyanga and Jayne 2014; Headey, Dereje, and Taffesse 2014; Josephson, Ricker-Gilbert, and Florax 2014; Lipton 1980, 2006). Still, there must be limits to increases in agricultural output per unit of land. If true, then an important question arises on how shrinking farms can provide a decent livelihood for households residing on these farms. Given rural population growth and the importance of agriculture in providing livelihoods, especially in most African countries, there is a considerable interest in understanding the linkages between declining farm sizes and welfare and food security outcomes. Making progress on this topic, however, is difficult due to data constraints. Differences in welfare and food security outcomes across the land quintiles could be driven by differences in landownership or by other household characteristics that systematically differ between households that own different amounts of land. Establishing a causal relationship between land size and Chapter 6