Slice forecast and its accuracy criterion

Subject. This article provides a mathematical formulation of a slice-based forecast technique allowing a comprehensive assessment of future changes in the dynamics and structure of economic systems. The technique is based on an analysis and integration of a set of time series of heterogeneous indicators combined in a system logical algorithm of information synthesis called a slice. A slice forecast accuracy criterion is proposed as well.Objectives. Slice forecasts are designed to improve the quality and efficiency of economic forecasts.Methods. The slice forecast technique is based on a slice technology as a set of methods to collect, process, analyze, and synthesize information and knowledge.Results. The article presents a calculation based on eight series of macroeconomic indicators that characterize the development of the economy of the Russian Federation for the period from 2000 to 2021. It shows new possibilities of analysis and description of economic systems, cycles and crisis phenomena.Conclusions. The results obtained show that the slice technique helps solve a number of urgent problems to improve the quality of foreseeing future changes.