Money supply as an instrument of monetary policy and the promotion of economic growth

Subject. The article analyzes the influence of the money supply as an instrument of monetary policy impact on stimulating the economic growth, namely, the impact of instrumental indicators on the target economic indicator of GDP.Objectives. The paper makes an attempt to contribute to the discussion on the role of money supply as an instrument of monetary policy in achieving the economic growth.Methods. The study uses a new mathematical tool that takes into account the direct control effect of the instrument of monetary policy on the achievement of the target economic indicator.Results. I suggest three management scenarios in the impact of money supply on GDP: a change in the money supply with violations of the response to management in certain periods that determined the growth of GDP; the lack of response to control action; and a transition scenario, when a short-term positive impact is recorded from time to time, which, in fact, is close to the second scenario.Conclusions. The first scenario includes Russia, the United States and Brazil, in which the instrument of monetary policy (the money supply) determined the growth of GDP with individual periods of disruption of management; the second scenario includes Germany, Denmark, and Japan, with no response to the management impact; the third scenario is observed in China, Norway, and India. This conclusion enables to identify the specifics of the impact of the set of monetary policy instruments on economic growth, considering the J. Tinbergen’s theory of economic policy.