Rest vs. Rust: The Effect of Disproportionate Time Between Rounds of a Playoff Series

This study analyzed the effect of a disproportionate amount of time between rounds of a playoff series—known as the “rest vs. rust” debate in the popular sports media—on the likelihood of winning each game of the subsequent round of the tournament. We utilized NBA Finals data from 1984 – 2018, and analyzed this phenomenon using ordered logistic regression with a categorical dependent variable representing the margin of victory of each game. In addition to several control variables, variables reflecting the difference in the time between series for the two teams were used to measure this effect. The results indicate that having additional time between rounds of the series provides a statistically significant advantage; interestingly, though, it has more of an impact on the second game of the subsequent round than it does for the first game. Teams may utilize the results of this study when deciding on how to schedule and intensify their practice sessions, by providing appropriate rest and maintaining rhythm to increase the likelihood of winning each game.