The Maritime Silk Road’s potential effects on outer island development: The Natuna Islands, Indonesia

The development of peripheral or outer islands is not widely discussed in the literature on national economic development. As peripheral and remote areas, outer islands and archipelagos are often ignored because they are deemed unimportant to a country’s economic growth. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to open channels of trade and connectivity, may influence island development and alter relationships between outer islands and their associated mainlands. The Natuna Islands are a remote outer archipelago of Indonesia’s Riau Islands Province but now find themselves on the path of China’s 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road (MSR), a key element of the BRI. This paper uses outcome mapping to explore how the MSR may have positive and negative impacts on Natuna’s island community. Improved communication, infrastructure, and barrier-free trade will enhance the archipelago’s territorial capital, yet it is important that the island community approaches these developments with care. Community participation and community capacity building are needed to prevent negative developmental trajectories that cause social and environmental harm.