Associations Between Dietary Patterns and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Prospective Cohort Study of 120,343 UK Biobank Participants

OBJECTIVE To identify dietary patterns (DPs) characterized by a set of nutrients of concern and their association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 120,343 participants from the U.K. Biobank study with at least two 24 h dietary assessments were studied. Reduced rank regression was used to derive DPs explaining variability in energy density, free sugars, saturated fat, and fiber intakes. We investigated prospective associations with T2D using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS Over 8.4 years of follow-up from the latest dietary assessment, 2,878 participants developed T2D. Two DPs were identified that jointly explained a total of 63% variation in four nutrients. DP1 was characterized by high intakes of chocolate and confectionery, butter, low-fiber bread, and sugars and preserves, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables. DP1 was linearly associated with T2D in multivariable models without BMI adjustment (per z score, hazard ratio [HR] 1.11 [95% CI 1.08–1.14]) and after BMI adjustment (HR 1.09 [95% CI 1.06–1.12]). DP2 was characterized by high intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages, fruit juice, table sugars and preserves, and low intakes of high-fat cheese and butter, but showed no clear association with T2D. There were significant interactions between both DPs and age, with increased risks among younger people in DP1 (HR 1.13 [95% CI 1.09–1.18]) and DP2 (HR 1.10 [95% CI 1.05–1.15]), as well as with DP1 and BMI, with increased risks among people with obesity (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.07–1.16]). CONCLUSIONS A DP characterized by high intakes of chocolate, confectionery, butter, low-fiber bread, and added sugars, and low in fresh fruits and vegetables intake is associated with a higher incidence of T2D, particularly among younger people and those with obesity.