Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts | Zendy

Esther Schroeder | Zendy; Donald B. Pittenger | Zendy

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Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts

Author(s) -

Esther Schroeder,

Donald B. Pittenger

Publication year - 1983

Publication title -

demography

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.099

H-Index - 129

eISSN - 1533-7790

pISSN - 0070-3370

DOI - 10.2307/2061238

Subject(s) - net migration rate , population projection , projections of population growth , population , projection (relational algebra) , econometrics , computer science , statistics , geography , research methodology , demography , mathematics , algorithm , population growth , sociology

Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970–1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.

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