An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model | Zendy

Steve H. Murdock | Zendy; F. Larry Leistritz | Zendy; Rita R. Hamm | Zendy; SeanShong Hwang | Zendy; Banoo Parpia | Zendy

AI Assistant Blog Pricing

Home ZAIA Blog

Open Access

An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model

Author(s) -

Steve H. Murdock,

F. Larry Leistritz,

Rita R. Hamm,

SeanShong Hwang,

Banoo Parpia

Publication year - 1984

Publication title -

demography

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.099

H-Index - 129

eISSN - 1533-7790

pISSN - 0070-3370

DOI - 10.2307/2061167

Subject(s) - projection (relational algebra) , population projection , census , geography , projections of population growth , econometrics , statistics , population , economic model , demography , research methodology , mathematics , economics , sociology , algorithm , macroeconomics

A large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states. Comparisons of the model’s projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model’s accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.

The content you want is available to Zendy users.

Already have an account? Click here to sign in.

Having issues? You can contact us here

Accelerating Research