Mortality levels and family fertility goals | Zendy

J.Y. Parlange | Zendy; M. J. Guilfoyle | Zendy; Roy E. Rickson | Zendy

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Mortality levels and family fertility goals

Author(s) -

J.Y. Parlange,

M. J. Guilfoyle,

Roy E. Rickson

Publication year - 1983

Publication title -

demography

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.099

H-Index - 129

eISSN - 1533-7790

pISSN - 0070-3370

DOI - 10.2307/2061118

Subject(s) - fertility , predictability , human fertility , birth rate , fallacy , total fertility rate , birth order , demography , demographic transition , family planning , population , mathematics , research methodology , statistics , sociology , philosophy , epistemology

The relationship between mortality levels and family fertility goals is a fundamental problem in the theory of the demographic transition. This paper deals with the logical problems of estimating family fertility rates from the expected probability of a child surviving to a given age of a parent. The possibility of committing the ecological fallacy makes precise prediction difficult. We critically analyze an existing mathematical model of family fertility decisions. We show that, by incorporating more data (here, on birth order) in a more comprehensive model capable of using those data, then the predictability of fertility rates over time can be significantly improved.

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