A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births | Zendy

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A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births

Author(s) -

John McDonald

Publication year - 1979

Publication title -

demography

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.099

H-Index - 129

eISSN - 1533-7790

pISSN - 0070-3370

DOI - 10.2307/2060937

Subject(s) - autoregressive model , series (stratigraphy) , econometrics , autoregressive–moving average model , autoregressive integrated moving average , econometric model , time series , stochastic modelling , statistics , mathematics , paleontology , biology

The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.

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