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Predicting species distribution in different climates is most often made by   climate models (“climate envelope models” - CEM) which are using the current   geographical distribution of species and climate characteristics of the area.   Hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera: Syrphidae) can act as bioindicators and   monitors of climate change and habitat quality. Cheilosia Meigen, 1822 is one   of the largest hoverflies genera, with about 450 described species. The aim   of this study was to model the current potential distribution of six species   from Cheilosia proxima group on the Balkan Peninsula (Cheilosia aerea Dufour,   1848, C. balkana Vujić, 1994, C. gigantea Zetterstedt, 1838, C. pascuorum   Becker, 1894, C. proxima Zetterstedt, 1843 and C. rufimana Becker, 1894)   using maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). It is observed that parameters with   highest influence on the analyzed species are Altitude and BIO 15   (Precipitation Seasonality) for all species, except C. rufimana. Parameter   that also substantially influenced for all species, except C. pascuorum, is   BIO 18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter). The models of current distribution   have shown that the most important area of the Balkan Peninsula, for species   from Cheilosia proxima group, is Dinaric mountains. Information obtained in   this paper can help in future monitoring of species, as well as for the   conservation measures, especially for endemics and rare species. [Projekat   Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 173002 i br. 43002

Prediction of current species distribution of Cheilosia proxima group (Diptera: Syrphidae) on the Balkan peninsula