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This study tried to determine whether systematic changes have taken place in   the size (amplitude) and duration (length) of business cycle phases in   industrial countries over the past half century and to analyze, by using two   parametric duration models, mainly, Gompertz and Weibull models, the possible   effects of some macroeconomic variables, such as labor productivity growth,   inflation, real interest rate, openness, oil prices, and gross saving rate,   on the duration of the contraction phases of business cycles. The reference   turning point chronology elaborated by the OECD for 23 industrial countries   for the post-1956 period was used. The sample included 258 expansions and 267   contraction spells. The widespread belief that the length of expansions has,   on average, become longer and that of contractions has become shorter over   time was not supported in our sample. There is sufficient evidence of   monotonically increasing hazard rates for both contraction and expansion   durations; i.e., the spells are positively duration-dependent. Regarding the   impacts of covariates on the hazard rate of contractions, the saving rate,   openness, productivity growth, and size (depth) were found to have   significant positive impacts, whereas the real interest rates have a negative   effect. Inflation, oil prices, and length of previous expansion period have   no significant impact on contraction durations

A survival analysis of the contraction phases of business cycles in industrial countries